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South Africa’s black electorate is no longer dominated by a single political party, with support primarily divided between the African National Congress (ANC), uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

Yesterday The Common Sense reported on how the black electorate is fracturing in Johannesburg. This is the case nationally too, according to polling conducted in July by The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation (SRF).*

The chart below shows how black support is now fragmented across South Africa’s major political parties.

For decades, the ANC’s political strength rested on its overwhelming dominance among black South African voters. That dominance has ended, with black voters spread across the party landscape, looking for new political homes.

The ANC remains the largest party among black South Africans, but MKP now has two-thirds of the support that the ANC enjoys among black voters, and the DA and the EFF have roughly a third of the support that the ANC enjoys among those voters.

This fragmentation has major implications for future elections. The ANC can no longer rely on historical loyalty among black voters alone to secure national dominance.

Marius Roodt told The Common Sense, "The way to think about these data is to think about people who have lost their political home and are now on a ‘Great Trek’ to find a new one. But it is unclear where they are ultimately going to settle. The policy offerings of the EFF and MKP are not going to lift the economy, which is the primary reason those voters left the ANC in the first place, so it is not assured that they can find a permanent home there, while the DA is primarily a party of the multiracial middle classes.

“What these voters are looking for is a home in the kind of party that does not really exist at the moment. It would have to be highly conservative, strongly Christian, and focused on traditional values, and law and order, but with an economic policy formula that could multiply the rate of economic growth.”

In answer to the question about what would happen if that party was never created, Roodt said, “That is kind of straightforward – the centre of South African politics cannot hold and this is the argument about why the country’s most likely outcome, on The Common Sense’s 2034 scenarios, is some kind of fragmentation of the 1910 Union.”

*This is raw polling data, which has to be distinguished from turnout-modelled data. The latter is what The Common Sense and the SRF usually publishes when estimating levels of party-political support in South Africa and the various metros, and those data are indicative of what an actual election result on the day of the polling would have been. Raw data are simply the straight-up answers that respondents give when asked which party they support.

The SRF’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.