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The African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) could jointly govern all three of Gauteng's metros following last week’s local government elections, with the distribution of mayoral committee positions determined by the parties’ relative electoral strength.

An analysis by The Common Sense of the election results identifies three possible coalition arrangements across Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni. These are an ANC and DA coalition, a DA and ActionSA coalition, and a broader coalition involving the ANC, ActionSA, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).

The analysis also models how mayoralties and the ten mayoral committee positions in each metro could be allocated if the parties followed the principle of proportionality adopted in the Government of National Unity (GNU). Under that principle, parties receive executive positions broadly in proportion to their representation within the governing coalition.

In Johannesburg, the ANC and DA would command 154 seats in the 270-seat council, comfortably exceeding the 136 required for a majority. The DA, with 91 seats, would be the larger coalition partner and could claim the mayoralty, alongside six of the ten mayoral committee positions. The ANC, with 63 seats, would receive four positions.

The alternative coalition involving the ANC, ActionSA, EFF, MKP, and PA would command 143 seats. Under the proportional model, the ANC would take the mayoralty and five mayoral committee positions, ActionSA would receive three positions, and the EFF and MKP one each. The PA would receive no mayoral committee positions.

A third possibility, involving the DA and ActionSA, would command 134 seats, falling two short of a majority. Were it nevertheless able to secure sufficient outside support, the DA could take the mayoralty and seven mayoral committee positions, with ActionSA receiving three.

The chart below shows possible coalitions in Johannesburg.

The chart below shows the potential division in mayoral committee positions in Johannesburg.

In Tshwane, the DA and ActionSA would control 122 seats in the 214-seat council, exceeding the 108 required for a majority. The DA would take the mayoralty and six mayoral committee positions, with ActionSA receiving four.

An ANC and DA coalition would command 118 seats. The DA would again take the mayoralty and six mayoral committee positions, leaving four for the ANC.

The broader coalition involving ActionSA, the ANC, EFF, MKP, and PA would command 111 seats. Under this arrangement, ActionSA could retain the mayoralty, with four mayoral committee positions allocated to it and another four to the ANC. The EFF and MKP would receive one position each.

The chart below shows potential coalitions in Tshwane.

The chart below shows the potential division in mayoral committee positions in Tshwane.

In Ekurhuleni, the broader five-party coalition would command 131 seats in the 224-seat council, exceeding the 113 required for a majority. The ANC would take the mayoralty and five mayoral committee positions, ActionSA would receive three, and the EFF and MKP one each.

An ANC and DA coalition would command 125 seats. Despite the ANC having 59 seats against the DA’s 66, the proportional model would see the two parties split the ten mayoral committee positions equally,while the DA would take the mayoralty.

A DA and ActionSA coalition would command only 106 seats, seven short of a majority. If it secured sufficient additional support, the DA could take the mayoralty and six mayoral committee positions, while ActionSA would receive four.

The chart below shows potential coalitions in Ekurhuleni.

The chart below shows the potential division in mayoral committee positions in Ekurhuleni.

The PA may, however, decide not to throw in its lot with a governing coalition that excludes the DA. Yesterday, the party said its preference for municipal coalitions was for the GNU to be replicated at local level.

The figures show that an ANC and DA agreement could secure outright majorities in all three metros, while leaving the DA in a position to claim all three mayoralties under the proportional arrangements modelled by The Common Sense. Such an agreement would also extend the cooperation between the two parties in the GNU to the local sphere of government, potentially bringing greater consistency to reform efforts across national and municipal administrations.

The final distribution of positions would, however, depend on coalition negotiations, with proportionality providing a basis for allocating executive power rather than a binding formula. The opportunity now exists for the parties to establish stable administrations across Gauteng’s major economic centres, but whether they use that opportunity will depend on their willingness and ability to put workable governance agreements ahead of narrower political interests.