This is a paid article which your subscription is allowing you to read.

Over the weekend three broad strokes political deals emerged that could determine the future of South African politics. But the practical execution of any of the three faces considerable headwinds and the consequences may extend as far as scuppering the Government of National Unity, the calling of an early national election, or see ActionSA emerging at the head of an African National Congress (ANC)/Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF)/uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) coalition.

To be workable as a coalition option a deal must meet two conditions. The first is that it must get the partners to a 50%-plus-one position in the key Gauteng metros and ideally in the four other hung metros too. The second is that the partners in the deal must be able to agree on how to split the mayoral and executive positions in each council to their mutual satisfaction.

The three deal options that nominally meet those conditions and are now under discussion are as follows:

The first is a pact between ActionSA, the ANC, the MKP, the EFF, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), and any other similarly aligned regional or local parties where necessary. This would essentially be an extension of the current governing alliance in Gauteng. It is favoured by the regional ANC there and by figures in the national ANC and is also popular inside the ActionSA camp.

It is a deal that should get its partners over the line in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Mangaung, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, and eThekwini.

In Gauteng the discussion around this deal is that ActionSA would take Tshwane in exchange for handing Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni to the ANC. eThekwini would go to the MKP and the ANC would be in pole position to take the mayorship of the balance of the cities.

This deal is popular in ANC ranks as it would retain party control of major centres and by extension patronage networks, while freezing out the Democratic Alliance (DA).

The deal would, however, be such a stark contradiction of the national unity government arrangement that its survival would be in doubt and it might come to be replaced by a new national unity government.

The second is a pact between the DA and the ANC. This gets the parties over the line in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Mangaung, Buffalo City, and Nelson Mandela Bay. It falls short in eThekwini but that can be dealt with by drafting in the Inkatha Freedom Party and one or two smaller parties if needed.

The trouble with this deal is that if proportionality is to apply the DA would end up with the bulk of the mayorships and control of the councils and the ANC would be entitled to only the mayorships of Buffalo City and Mangaung.

Some ANC actors have said that this would be so totally unacceptable that war would be declared in the party against Fikile Mbalula and Cyril Ramaphosa. That, however, is simply a reflection of the reality that now faces the ANC as the same proportionality principle would be at play as the one the ANC used to determine Cabinet slots and insist on the presidency for Ramaphosa. In part, the threat of internal rebellion in the ANC ranks is an old trick, used by its leadership, to justify delaying reform. The ANC finds itself so gravely weakened after last week's election that the reality of any national pact encompassing the metros must necessarily see the ANC play a secondary role to the DA.

The third is a DA-ActionSA pact.

ActionSA has however insisted that for the pact to go ahead it must receive the mayorship of Tshwane while both Cilliers Brink and Helen Zille are removed out of prominent roles by the DA. Very few parties would accept conditions that extend to how they manage their own internal affairs, let alone overlook the fact that in Tshwane the DA received more support than ActionSA.

In the unlikely event that this deal does go ahead it would get the two parties over the line in only Tshwane.

In Johannesburg the two parties would be two seats short of a majority and in Ekurhuleni they would be six seats short of a majority and require an array of smaller coalition partners to make the deal work.

In the remaining metros such a deal is even further out of reach, even before considering that it would contradict the national unity government and place it at risk.

Over the next week party leaders will sit down with each other to work through these broad deals and permutations of them. Some of the permutations may extend as far as confidence and supply agreements and ideas around excluding certain partners included in the broad pacts sketched above. That process will be fraught and introduce considerable risk into South Africa's short- to medium-term political outlook.

The Common Sense will be following this process very closely and will update its analysis whenever appropriate.

.