The Electoral Commission (IEC) estimated at a media briefing that 12 million votes had been cast in today’s local government elections by 17:00, according to veteran political analyst Gareth van Onselen, who runs Inside Politics.

“As per IEC briefing. IEC estimates 12m votes by 5pm (clearly an approximation). That translates into a cumulative turnout total of 41,04%,” Van Onselen said in a post on the Inside Politics X account at 18:10. The 41.04% figure is Van Onselen’s own calculation.

“The 2026 line has thus pulled away from the 2011 line. And much further from 2021. History suggests turnout tends to die from this point. Still looking promising to beat 2021 (46%) and more in line with 2011 (57%), last few hours will be all determining,” Van Onselen said.

In the same post, Van Onselen wrote: “One disclaimer, I am presuming this 5pm total does not include special votes, as no previous IEC updates have, but IEC [is] so vague, it [is] always hard to be definitive.”

In an earlier post, at just before 5pm, Van Onselen said turnout was “[c]urrently tracking almost identical to 2011, which ended on 57.5% (on PR ballot)”. “Honestly, if turnout gets to 50% [it] will be a left field outcome that would defy almost every expectation,” Van Onselen said.