Johannesburg’s deepening crisis is not confined to the city or its residents. The Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE), a Johannesburg-based think tank, has warned that South Africa’s ability to restore economic growth, expand employment, and attract investment will depend in large measure on whether Johannesburg can be turned around.

This is the central message of Joburg in Jeopardy, the first report in a new series by CDE, which aims to analyse the state of the city and propose solutions to its problems.

“Preventing the collapse of the city must become a national priority,” said CDE executive director Ann Bernstein. “Johannesburg is the one municipality whose failure would make national success impossible. It raises the critical question: if Johannesburg cannot be fixed, can we fix South Africa?”

Johannesburg remains the centre of South Africa’s financial and corporate economy and a major source of tax revenue. It is also a critical centre of employment, investment, and opportunity, and the country’s principal economic gateway to the world. Failure in Johannesburg has grave implications for South Africa as a whole.

The City is in financial distress, with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana warning that it owes creditors R25 billion while holding only R4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Johannesburg Water has identified an infrastructure renewal backlog of R27 billion, while the City’s electricity infrastructure backlog is estimated at R44 billion.

The deterioration of Johannesburg is impacting on its economic performance. Nowhere is this more evident than in its job numbers. In the second quarter of 2026, Johannesburg recorded the highest official unemployment rate among South Africa’s metropolitan municipalities, at 35.9%. Between April 2025 and June 2026, the city lost 90 000 jobs, while Cape Town added 57 000.

Rising crime is another significant indicator of Johannesburg’s decline. The murder rate in the city rose from 25.6 to 35.6 per 100 000 people between 2012 and 2025 (although there has been some improvement over the past year). In 2025/26, on average, 388 serious crimes were reported daily, and Johannesburg recorded the highest levels of kidnapping and robbery with aggravating circumstances in South Africa.

These problems reinforce one another. Poor governance weakens municipal finances, which undermines maintenance and investment. Failing infrastructure raises the cost of doing business, encouraging businesses and skilled people to leave and further weakening the economic base needed to restore the City’s finances. Crime imposes direct costs in doing business and makes new investment unattractive.

At the heart of the crisis, CDE argues, is its politics. Since 2016 Johannesburg has had nine mayors and eight different coalitions, with no mayor completing a full five-year term.

“The city’s crisis is not primarily technical, it is political,” Bernstein said.

“Johannesburg can recover,” Bernstein said. “We have to fix what has been broken but this is only possible if the elections produce stable, honest political leadership and they then mobilise the best possible people, including from outside political parties, to manage reform and delivery.”

The November local government elections will therefore be critical, she said, as Johannesburg desperately needs stable leadership capable of making difficult decisions and carrying out a multi-year programme of reform.

A successful turnaround will not be possible with new leadership alone, however competent. It will demand wide-ranging partnerships with Johannesburg’s private sector, financial markets, educational institutions, civic organisations, and citizens. National government will also have to play a significant role.

“A thriving Johannesburg would be a powerful engine of growth for the country, driving employment and upward mobility,” Bernstein added. “The opposite is also true: a failing city will drag South Africa down, as it has been doing for some time.”