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Statistical modelling by an elections analyst shows that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will retain its majority in Cape Town and be the biggest party in the three Gauteng metros, although it will not win a majority in any of that province’s metros. It will also be the biggest party in Nelson Mandela Bay in the Eastern Cape but will also fail to secure a majority there.

This is according to statistical modelling conducted by Dawie Scholtz, an elections analyst.

Scholtz says that his model is neither a poll nor a forecast. It draws on past voting and turnout patterns, demographic characteristics, trends in public polling, and the results of municipal by-elections.

By-elections effectively provide samples of how different groups of voters may be shifting. Scholtz compares their results with previous elections and then groups areas with similar demographic and voting characteristics. The swings recorded in by-elections can then be used to estimate how comparable groups of voters may be moving elsewhere.

According to Scholtz’s modelling, the DA could expect around 54% of the vote in Cape Town, with the African National Congress (ANC) on 20%. The Patriotic Alliance, which has won a number of by-elections in the rural Western Cape, and which has led to speculation it could do well in Cape Town, was on 5%, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 6%.

Should the DA win a majority in the November election in Cape Town, it will be the fourth consecutive municipal election where the party has won a majority in the city.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, Scholtz’s modelling has the DA on 39%, the ANC on 35%, and the EFF on 9%.

In Johannesburg, the DA was on 39% according to Scholtz’s model, with the ANC on 27%. According to the modelling, the EFF was on 9%, ActionSA on 7%, and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) on 6%.

In Tshwane, the DA was on 41%, according to Scholtz’s model, the ANC on 27%, the EFF on 11%, ActionSA on 7%, and the Freedom Front Plus on 6%.

The final metro that Scholtz modelled was Ekurhuleni. Here the DA was also ahead of the ANC. The DA was on 37%, according to Scholtz’s modelling, with the ANC on 30%. The EFF was on 11%, the MKP on 9%, and ActionSA on 3%.

Scholtz’s modelling is similar to polling that The Common Sense has conducted with the Social Research Foundation on Johannesburg and Tshwane. His modelling on Cape Town, which shows the DA retaining the city, is also similar to an analysis conducted by The Common Sense, which also showed that the party is likely retain Cape Town with a majority.