Motsepe Exit from ARM Fuels ANC Leadership Talk

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) confirmed this week that Patrice Motsepe has retired from his role as executive chairman of the diversified mining group he founded in 1997 and built into one of South Africa’s largest resource companies. He will remain on the board as non-executive chairman.

This may be read by some as a step to contesting the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC).

There has been talk for some time of Motsepe being a potential challenger for the leadership of the ANC, and this move by him has added grist to the rumour mill.

President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to stand down as ANC leader at the party’s 2027 national conference with no clear successor emerging as yet.

Motsepe is popular among ordinary South Africans. Polling* conducted by the Social Research Foundation at the end of last year found that 23% of all South Africans preferred Motsepe as the next ANC leader, compared to 19%, who were for ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula, and 13% for deputy president Paul Mashatile. A further 16% backed none of the listed candidates, while 17% were undecided or declined to answer. That places Motsepe in a clear lead in what is an otherwise fragmented field.

Marius Roodt, deputy editor of The Common Sense, previously argued that if the ANC were to elect Motsepe as the next head of the party, it could have a realistic shot at once again winning more than 50% of the national vote. “Motsepe is clearly a popular choice as the next ANC leader. He has been a successful businessman and he is not tainted by the ANC’s various corruption scandals and misgovernance. However, it is unclear whether he would be willing to go through the mud-wrestling match that ANC elective conferences generally are. It is likely that Motsepe would only accept nomination for leadership if he can run unopposed. It remains to be seen whether the ANC would be willing to do this, but it is probably its best chance of once again winning a parliamentary majority,” Roodt said.

A Motsepe candidacy would likely also be read by business leaders and foreign diplomats as a signal of reform intent from the ANC. Motsepe’s track record as a successful businessman could steady investor sentiment at a time when fixed investment remains fragile and South African politics continues to fracture.

The resignation by Motsepe from ARM may mark a quiet opening move by the businessman. If the ANC unites early around a figure such as Motsepe, who reassures markets and voters alike, it could yet reset its trajectory before 2029. But if it descends into a bruising internal battle, the opportunity may slip away.

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.