Motsepe Pulls Ahead in ANC Race

Patrice Motsepe could be pulling ahead in the race to be the next leader of the African National Congress (ANC), according to sources within the party.

Motsepe recently resigned as the executive chairman of African Rainbow Minerals, a company that he founded in the 1990s.

TheCommon Sense last week reported that Motsepe’s resignation should be read less as routine corporate succession and more as a move that clears political space ahead of the ANC leadership contest, scheduled for December 2027.

The Common Sense has previously reported that Social Research Foundation polling conducted at the end of 2025 put Motsepe on 23% as preferred next ANC leader among South African voters. He was followed by Fikile Mbalula on 19%, Paul Mashatile on 13%, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa on 9%, and Senzo Mchunu on 4%. That was before the idea of Motsepe succeeding Cyril Ramaphosa had meaningfully taken hold in the public mind.

Frans Cronje’s assessment is that a formal campaign backed by a serious media operation would likely place Motsepe well ahead of other plausible candidates.

Various sources with direct knowledge of events have told The Common Sense that Paul Mashatile and Fikile Mbalula are falling behind in the running. Against that, Cronje’s central guidance to investors is to treat a Motsepe run as the plausible baseline, but not as a certainty. As Cronje told The Common Sense, Much depends on whether the Motsepe camp sees both a clear route to victory through the ANCs electoral conference in December 2027 and a strong prospect of the ANC largely uniting behind Mr Motsepe."

If those two conditions are met, Cronje believes Motsepe likely runs and likely wins, because the ANC needs a candidate able to signal competence, market credibility, and widespread appeal in a party split between a number of factions. If those conditions are not met, then who the next ANC leader will be remains unclear.

Cronje further argues that a Motsepe victory could lift ANC support materially, either restoring an ANC majority in 2029 or producing a durable centrist coalition with the Democratic Alliance under Geordin Hill-Lewis. Under either outcome, he expects reform momentum to accelerate, lifting the fixed investment rate above 20% of GDP and pushing growth closer to 3%, provided the political alignment holds.