There has been a striking surge in support for Patrice Motsepe to lead the African National Congress (ANC), as evidenced by new polling data. His popularity has skyrocketed among all South African voters, and among ANC voters, according to the latest polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) commissioned in conjunction with The Common Sense.

Motsepe, the billionaire businessman and philanthropist, continues to lead the race for ANC leader, with a commanding 39% of all voters ranking him as their preferred candidate to replace Cyril Ramaphosa. That percentage is up from 23% in the fourth quarter of 2025 - when he was also the preferred candidate.

In second place is Fikile Mbalula with 14% – down from 19% in late 2025.

It is among ANC supporters that Motsepe polled most strongly, with the SRF/The Common Sense revealing that 47% of ANC voters picked him as their number one option to replace Ramaphosa. Mbalula was in second place with 19%, and Paul Mashatile in third with 16%. No other figure polled above 5%.

Warwick Grey told The Common Sense, “The Motsepe campaign in the data looks a bit like a rocket ship taking off and it is very hard to think that any of the competing candidates could catch him.”

“From the ANC’s perspective, the data are pretty definitive, and if they want a lifeline to turn things around, this is likely it.”

The Common Sense has previously argued that should the campaign around Motsepe see its way through the ANC’s 2027 conference – which may be a violent and corrupt affair, and they would not want to participate in any of that – then he will likely run, win, become South Africa’s president, and stage a national economic recovery sufficient for the ANC, in time, to restore its national majority.

*The Social Research Foundation Q1 2026 Market Survey was commissioned by the Social Research Foundation supported by The Common Sense and conducted by Victory Research using a nationally representative telephonic CATI survey of registered voters (N=2 222), with metro samples upsized to over 500 respondents each in Johannesburg (n=503), Tshwane (n=510), and eThekwini (n=503). Fieldwork was conducted between 16 February 2026 and 6 March 2026 using a single-frame random digit dialling sampling design that draws from all possible South African mobile numbers, ensuring equal probability of selection and near-universal coverage given SIM penetration above 250%, more than 90% adult phone ownership, and mobile network coverage of 99.8% of the population. Respondents were screened to include registered voters only, and turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on likelihood indicators, with the primary model assuming turnout of 56.0%. Data were weighted to ensure the national sample reflects the demographic profile of the registered voter population across language, age, race, gender, location (urban/rural), education, and income, while metro samples were weighted to the demographic composition of voters in each metro. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level with a design effect (DEFF) of 1.762, producing margins of error of 2.1% nationally and 4.4% for each metro sample.