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New polling released by eNCA, in conjunction with MarkData, has found that the Democratic Alliance (DA) is ahead of the African National Congress (ANC) in Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay, ahead of next month’s local government election.

eNCA conducted the polling in August and September and six metros were polled – Cape Town, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Tshwane. About 1 000 people were polled in each metro, and the margin of error was between 3.03% and 3.11%.

The release of the metro results will be staggered, with Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay being the first two metros whose results were made public.

The chart below shows voting intention in Nelson Mandela Bay.

The chart below shows voting intention in Ekurhuleni.

Taking into account the margin of error, there is a dead heat between the ANC and the DA in both Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.

The results suggest that both metros will be closely contested in the upcoming local government elections, with neither the ANC nor the DA enjoying a decisive advantage. After the last two local elections both Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay were governed by coalitions, and this is likely to remain the case after next month’s election. The most significant finding from the poll is that the DA is ahead of the ANC in Ekurhuleni for the first time, and although the gap is within the margin of error, it nevertheless indicates a shift in South African politics.

The DA could well be the biggest party in the three Gauteng metros, as well as Nelson Mandela Bay. The party is likely to win a majority in Cape Town and is also likely to be bigger than the ANC in eThekwini. This means that in six of the eight metros the DA will probably be bigger than the ANC, something that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago.