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The Democratic Alliance (DA) is now the single-biggest party across South Africa’s major urban centres, while the African National Congress (ANC) remains dominant outside them.

If South Africa’s eight metropolitan municipalities, Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Cape Town, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Mangaung, were treated as a single political unit, the DA would have emerged as the largest party in the 2024 election.

Outside the metros, however, the picture is somewhat different. The ANC remains ahead, albeit without a majority, followed by the DA and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) in the country’s rural areas, which each have half the vote share of the ANC.

The chart below shows support for South Africa’s largest parties across the eight metros and outside them.

This urban divide matters because the metros are South Africa’s economic engines. They generate most of the country’s economic output, account for a large share of formal employment, and contribute disproportionately to personal income tax, despite containing only about 40% of the population.

The chart below shows the metros’ share of South Africa’s population, GDP, formal employment, and assessed personal income tax.

The ANC is therefore no longer the biggest party across the parts of South Africa that generate most of its economic output and employment. Taken together, the metros have already moved beyond ANC dominance, with the DA now narrowly leading in the country’s economic heartlands.

That points to a potentially important political realignment. The ANC remains strongest in poorer and more rural parts of the country, while its support has weakened substantially in urban economies.

The question is whether the cities are showing the country where its politics are heading. South Africa’s future growth, employment, and fiscal sustainability will depend heavily on its metropolitan economies, meaning the political preferences of urban voters are likely to become increasingly important.

There is another reason to watch the trend closely. These figures come from a national election. The DA has historically tended to perform better in local government elections than in national elections, while the ANC has tended to perform worse. With the next local government election only six weeks away, the urban political shift could become even more pronounced.