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The black voter market in South Africa has splintered into a number of large shards, according to polls conducted in July by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation*.

The polls asked registered voters who they would vote for if an election were held “tomorrow”.

Among black voters, 36% said they would vote for the ANC.

In second place was the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) at 24%.

In third place was the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 13%.

In fourth place was the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 12%.

The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) was in fifth position at 6%.

Fractional parties and those polling within the margin of error of the survey held the balance of the vote.

The data are set out in the chart below.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense, “There are a few things that stand out from those data. A first is that the broader ANC/MK/EFF collective is at 72% of the black vote. A second is that the DA share, at 13%, is not far off the figure at which we estimate the established multigenerational middle class to be. A third is that, on these figures, an ANC/DA coalition government would represent less than half the black vote.”

“That bodes ill for the credibility of the GNU… but this arises from the fact that the ANC/DA GNU has not got behind reforms capable of raising the growth and employment rates. Had it done so then the black vote share for the DA and the ANC would have been much stronger. But talking about reform and moving very slowly while fiddling on the edges of the economy won’t cut it.”

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.