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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the African National Congress (ANC) has lost ground almost entirely among the voters who rated it well in the first place. Between March and July the share of black voters who say the party is performing well in the Government of National Unity fell by about 14 points, and in townships by about 15. Among white voters the figure did not move at all, and in the suburbs it barely shifted. The chart below shows the share of likely voters, in total and by population group and area, who say the ANC is performing well in the Government of National Unity, in March and in July.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.