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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the share of likely voters with a favourable view of Pieter Groenewald, leader of the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and Minister of Correctional Services, has nearly doubled, from 8% in February last year to 14% in March and 15% in July. The unfavourable share has not risen: it stood at 26% in February 2025, 18% in March and 22% in July. The share with no view of him, either unsure or too unfamiliar with him to say, has not changed either, at 60%, 64% and 57% across the three rounds. More voters still view him unfavourably than favourably, 22% to 15%, but the gap has narrowed from 18 points to seven, and the narrowing has come from the favourable side. The chart below shows the share of likely voters who view Groenewald favourably, unfavourably, or have no view of him, at each of the three rounds.

* The figures come from three Social Research Foundation Market Surveys conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single frame random digit dialling design was used in each round, with respondents screened for voter registration and then interviewed, and the sample was further quota-controlled for key demographic characteristics of South Africa's registered voter population. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, making telephonic interviewing a reliable method of reaching a representative sample of registered voters. Each sample was fully weighted according to the demographic parameters of the registered voter population. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting in the next election, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. Figures in this piece are for likely voters under that model. Each round carries a national margin of error of 4.0% at a 95.0% confidence level.

The rounds were: 4 to 19 February 2025, 1 004 respondents, 582 likely voters, design effect 2.0127; 20 February to 6 March 2026, 2 222 respondents, 1 199 likely voters, design effect 3.2675; and 8 to 31 July 2026, 2 214 respondents, 1 583 likely voters, design effect 3.7938.