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New polling from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation* shows the ANC in a tight position. Meanwhile, the opposition landscape is shifting in ways that won't please everyone at Luthuli House. The numbers are here.

Polling conducted by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation* between 8 and 31 July, among 2 214 respondents nationally, with a margin of error of 2.1% and a turnout model of 53%, found the ANC on 34%, the DA on 27%, the MKP on 15%, and the EFF on 7%. The Inkatha Freedom Party polled at 5% and the Freedom Front Plus at 3%, the only other parties above the margin of error. In the previous round of polling, conducted in March 2026, the ANC stood at 39%, the DA at 28%, the MKP at 10%, and the EFF at 6%.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.