Sixteen years after our last FIFA World Cup, Bafana Bafana open the 2026 tournament against Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on 11 June.

This year’s Football World Cup is the biggest ever: 48 teams, three host nations, 104 matches, 1 248 players. And the new format works in our favour. Start there.

Africa at the World Cup

Ten African teams, the most ever. It is mostly the format: the expansion roughly doubled the continent’s places, from five to nine, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) became the tenth African team after it won a playoff against Jamaica.

Africa’s presence doubled in one tournament, on the back of the format.

Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022, lead the African challenge, along with Senegal and Ivory Coast. The other African teams that are participating are World Cup debutants Cape Verde, and Algeria, Egypt, Ghana, and Tunisia.

How We Got Here and What Comes Next

Hugo Broos’s side won their Africa qualifying group ahead of Nigeria, despite a 3-0 forfeit to Lesotho for fielding a suspended player.

This is our fourth World Cup, after 1998, 2002 and 2010. We have never reached the knockouts.

We open against Mexico at the Azteca. We did the same in 2010, at home, and drew 1-1. Same opponent, same opening night, sixteen years on.

How the New Format Works

There are 12 groups of four. The top two in each go through, plus the eight best third-placed teams. That is 32 of 48 into a new Round of 32.

This means two-thirds of the field survives the group, not half as before. Even finishing third gives you a two-in-three chance of going through.

Two-thirds of teams now survive the group, against half under the old format.

For us, that is everything. We no longer have to finish top two. Third can be enough.

What We Actually Need

We are at 1000/1 odds for the trophy and about 12/1 to win the group. Beating Mexico on opening night stands at a roughly one in eight chance. None of that is the number that counts.

The trophy is out of reach. Going through is not, and only because of the new format.

The number that counts is the last bar: reaching the Round of 32, at about a one in three chance.

In points, a best-third place usually needs only three or four. So we probably do not need to beat Mexico.

We need to avoid a heavy defeat, then take points off the Czechs and South Korea. A draw at the Azteca is worth more than it looks.

Who Has Won It and Who Can Win It

This is the most open Football World Cup in years. Spain lead at barely one in six, France level, England, Brazil, and Argentina just behind, with Portugal as the most likely first-time winner.

No side gets better than one-in-six odds. A true favourite usually sits above 25 percent.

The Full Draw

What is New Since 2010

Our last World Cup had no video assistant referee (VAR) and no goal-line technology. This one is the opposite.

• •The Adidas TRIONDA ball has a sensor sending 500 readings a second to pin offsides.
• •Offside calls go straight to the assistant referee’s earpiece.
• •All 1 248 players have been scanned into 3D avatars, so replays show the real player.
• •Goalkeepers get eight seconds before a corner, only captains may argue, and there are five subs (six in extra time).

How to Watch in SA

• •SuperSport: All 104 matches live, on every DStv tier down to Access.
• •SABC: 34 free-to-air, including the opener, all three Bafana games, both semis and the final. SABC 1 for Bafana and the opener, SABC 3 for the rest. Full streaming on SABC Plus.