Global Growth Outlook Edges Higher for 2025 and 2026

Ratings agency S&P Global projects that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, with the pace holding at 3.2% in 2027 before easing slightly to 3.1% in 2028. The outlook suggests a firmer but still moderate global expansion as geopolitical and inflation pressures gradually stabilise.

The Asia-Pacific region remains the strongest contributor to the global profile, while Europe shows signs of gradual improvement and North America presents a more mixed picture. Emerging markets vary, with some momentum in Latin America and a continued structural drag in South Africa.

North America

The United States economy grew by 2.8% in 2024 and is expected to expand by 2.0% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Growth then slows to 1.9% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028 as demand normalises and cyclical forces fade.

Canada is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025 after expanding by 1.6% in 2024. Growth remains modest across the forecast horizon, with 2028 expected to come in at around 1.3%. High household debt and a softer property cycle continue to restrain momentum.

Europe

The eurozone is forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2025 after expanding by 0.9% in 2024. Growth is projected at 1.2% in 2026, followed by a similar pace through 2027 and 2028. The region’s recovery remains constrained by weak demographics and slow manufacturing revival.

The United Kingdom is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025 after recording 1.1% in 2024. Growth then holds between 1.4% and 1.5% through to 2028, supported by firmer household spending and real wage gains.

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific continues to deliver the most significant momentum in the global economy. China is forecast to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with growth remaining above 4% in 2027 and 2028 as targeted stimulus and gradual property stabilisation support activity.

Japan is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and maintain growth rates slightly above 1% through 2026 and 2027, supported by moderate investment and softer inflation.

India remains the standout performer. Growth stays above 6.5% every year through 2028, reaching 7.0% in 2027 and 6.8% in 2028. Its trajectory reinforces India’s role as a leading engine of global expansion.

Emerging Economies

Mexico is projected to grow steadily through 2025 and 2026, with growth continuing along a stable path into 2028.

Brazil maintains modest momentum, with growth expected to approach 2% by 2028.

South Africa’s outlook remains subdued, with GDP projected at 1.0% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026, and rising gradually toward 1.7% by 2028. Structural constraints continue to limit the country’s growth ceiling.

Global Picture

Taken together, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, followed by 3.2% in both 2025 and 2026, holding at 3.2% in 2027 before edging slightly lower to 3.1% in 2028. Much of the global momentum comes from Asia-Pacific, with additional support from Europe and parts of the Americas. The overall pattern remains one of steady but moderate expansion rather than a strong global upswing.