Why Motsepe Is The ANC's Best Bet For 2027

Cyril Ramaphosa is set to exit as African National Congress (ANC) leader in December 2027. The question of who succeeds him is one of the most important directional indicators of where South Africa’s economy and democracy are headed.

Earlier this week this newspaper reported that 23% of all South Africans would choose businessman Patrice Motsepe as their preferred next ANC leader, compared to 19% for ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, and 13% for deputy president Paul Mashatile.* In fourth place, 9% opted for electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, with 4% choosing suspended police minister Senzo Mchunu. A further 16% said they did not support any of the listed candidates, while 17% either refused to answer or were undecided.

That is a strong lead for Motsepe in an otherwise broadly split field. At this newspaper we think Motsepe is the best choice for the ANC if it wishes to restore its national majority. Pick him, together with a respected ANC veteran as a running mate such as Speaker of Parliament, Thoko Didiza, stay in the Government of National Unity (GNU) for the time being, negotiate an exit strategy for uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and Jacob Zuma, and drive through reforms to reduce taxes on capital, secure property rights, leverage South Africa’s geostrategic real estate to secure good trade terms with Washington and Beijing, and use South Africa’s existing coal plants to vastly hike energy output and the ANC likely goes back above 50% when South Africans vote in 2029.

Mr Mbalula, whom existing ANC voters prefer as their pick, we judge would stay in the GNU but perhaps not drive the aggressive reforms necessary to get fixed investment and growth rates up enough to bring frustrated former ANC voters back to the party. The GNU would likely hold, but ANC support may continue to dip and the Democratic Alliance and ANC would continue to govern the country. The danger in that is that while the current status quo therefore in practice persists for some time, so too do high levels of poverty and unemployment, and the unity government will as a consequence remain extremely vulnerable to populist takeover. That risk will keep fixed investment at bay.

The popular thinking is that Mr Mashatile would exit the GNU and do a deal with MK and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The ANC would lead a populist left front that nationalises everything in sight and prints money. Disaster would follow, living standards would collapse, and South Africa would destabilise quickly. Maybe. But there is some reason to suspect that the popular thinking is wrong.

Under the right terms Mr Mashatile may stay in the GNU to keep his direct EFF and MK rivals out. Sinking the economy in a matter of weeks could well see political support rally further to the DA or to a new centrist ANC spin off, and likely to both. Mr Mashatile, as a hardliner, is also closer to the archetype of a typical reformer than the slightly naive idea that a reformer needs to be a nice liberal democrat you may want at your dinner party. Hardliners make tough calls. For the ANC the tough call, to survive, is real reform.

What the ANC should not do is allow this fragmented support situation to persist for long. The risk is that it then enters a contested leadership race and splinters further. Nothing would be more off putting to voters already leaving the party.

The wise thing to do would be to start uniting around a candidate and then clear the decks to have an uncontested race ahead of the 2027 ANC leadership conference. That conference will take place roughly a year after the next local government polls, in which the ANC may not do very well, and roughly eighteen months before the 2029 national election. Mess up the conference, and the ANC’s options to restore its majority may permanently slip away.

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.