If the African National Congress (ANC) ends up with about 30% of the vote in next week’s election, that will be its biggest single drop in an election so far; about 13 to 15 points. Gabriel Makin sits down with Gareth van Onselen, CEO of Victory Research and pollster for the Social Research Foundation (SRF), to go through the SRF’s final poll before the local government elections. Nationally, the ANC is on 32%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 26%, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) on 12%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters on 8%. On these numbers, the DA comes within 10 points of the ANC, and for the first time it can tell voters before 2029 that it can beat the ANC.

Gareth and Gabriel also go metro by metro. The DA leads the ANC in Johannesburg and Tshwane, while the MKP is the biggest party in eThekwini.

Gareth explains why eThekwini sets the rules for coalitions elsewhere, why Jo’burg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni should be treated as one economic hub, and why the DA should leave the Government of National Unity. They also cover what remains of the ANC’s base, the 60% of voters who call the ANC anti-poor, ActionSA’s numbers, the MKP and Zulu nationalism beyond Jacob Zuma, and whether South Africa is leaving one-party dominance behind.