South African farm confidence jumped 8 points in the third quarter of 2026, taking the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index to 53 — above the 50 mark for the first time this year. Wandile Sihlobo explains what turned the mood, why $7.8 billion of first-half exports (up 11%) is not just a base effect, and why El Niño means the optimism should not be read as a forecast.