The African National Congress (ANC) won just 53 of South Africa’s 213 municipalities outright in last week’s local government elections, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) won 12.

However, in a further 93 hung councils, the two parties together command a majority and could form coalition administrations. This means that 74.2% of South Africa’s municipalities could be governed either by the ANC, the DA, or a coalition between the two parties (these municipalities also account for just under 80% of South Africa’s population).

The figures, drawn from an analysis by The Common Sense of Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) election results, show that despite the ANC’s dramatic electoral decline, the two largest parties remain in a position to jointly govern a large proportion of South Africa’s municipalities.

Of the 213 municipalities, the ANC secured outright majorities in 24.9%, while the DA won outright majorities in 5.6%.

In another 93 municipalities, accounting for 43.7% of the country’s councils, neither party won an outright majority, but the two together have sufficient representation to govern without needing the support of any other party.

Of these 93 hung municipalities, the ANC is the larger party in 71, while the DA is the larger party in 22.

This leaves just 55 municipalities, or 25.8% of the total, where neither party has won outright and where an ANC-DA coalition would not secure a majority.

The chart below shows the municipal breakdown.

The picture is even more striking in South Africa’s eight metros, which account for a substantial proportion of the country’s population and economic activity.

The DA won Cape Town outright and emerged as the larger party in four hung metros where it and the ANC together have a majority. The ANC is the larger party in another two hung metros where the parties could govern together.

This means that in seven of South Africa’s eight metros, or 87.5%, the ANC and DA could either govern outright or together in a coalition.

The only metro that falls outside this arithmetic is eThekwini.

The chart below shows the metro breakdown.

The chart below shows the geographical concentration of these municipalities. The DA won municipalities outright primarily in the Western Cape, while the ANC won outright primarily in North West, northern Limpopo, and the eastern reaches of the Eastern Cape.

The arithmetic does not mean that such coalitions will necessarily be formed. The parties would still need to agree on the allocation of mayoral positions, executive responsibilities, and governing programmes. Political differences and competing demands could also prevent agreements even where the numbers make them possible. Especially in the metros, it is an open question whether the ANC would be willing to act as a junior partner to the DA in certain governing arrangements.

But the implications extend beyond local government. If the two parties cannot replicate the Government of National Unity arrangement at local level, and if either party instead throws in its lot with smaller parties, the national governing arrangement could be put under strain. The decisions made about who governs in various municipalities could end the current national coalition between the two parties.

The central political question is therefore not whether the two parties have the numbers to govern a significant portion of South Africa together. It is whether they have the political will to do so.