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It is not just the middle classes that have dumped the African National Congress (ANC). Polls conducted in July by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation* found that in its core constituencies the ANC is now below majority level.

Respondents were asked which party they would vote for if an election were held “today”.

This newspaper has already reported that overall ANC support has fallen to a near record low.

What will concern the ANC even more is that these losses are across the board and not only among the middle classes.

Among black voters, just 36% said they would vote for the ANC.

Among township voters, the figure was 32%.

Among the poorest voters, those with an income of less than R2 000 a month, the figure was 49%.

Among registered voters in traditional rural areas, the figure was 39%.

Put differently, even if only poor black people in deep rural areas voted, or if only township residents voted, the ANC could still not restore its national majority.

The chart below sets out the data.

It is widely known that the ANC has lost the urban middle classes and in established suburbia it is polling at just 3%. But it has also lost virtually every other voting constituency in the country.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.