The findings show voters are often more pragmatic than the policies advanced in their name. On policy, 70% of respondents said government should no longer use apartheid race categories to decide who qualifies for business and job opportunities, while 27% said it should.

On the presidency, 66% said they would support the best person regardless of race. Only 23% said they would only support a black person, while 11% said they would prefer a black person but remain open to other options.

The same pattern appears on public procurement. Only 10% supported the current system, which allows overspending in pursuit of “transformation”. A combined 45% wanted value for money prioritised, with race used only as a tiebreaker or disregarded entirely.

On black economic empowerment (BEE), 82% said government should find out how much it is overspending on BEE premiums, while 12% said there was no need because BEE was worth it regardless of cost.

The poll also found that 61% of respondents said they were not getting good value for money from government, against 32% who said they were. On taxation, 57% said they wanted to be taxed less, 32% said they were taxed the right amount, and 7% wanted to be taxed more.

The findings reinforce the IRR’s argument that a moderate middle exists in South Africa, one motivated by practical concerns about opportunity, competence, cost, fairness, and delivery. Many African National Congress (ANC) policies run counter to these preferences, especially recent moves on employment equity and racial preferencing in public procurement.

The IRR poll placed ANC support at 36%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 27%, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party at 12%, the Economic Freedom Fighters at 10%, the Inkatha Freedom Party at 4%, the Patriotic Alliance at 3%, and the Freedom Front Plus and ActionSA each at 2%.

That puts the gap between the ANC and DA at nine points, compared with 18 points at the 2024 election. The numbers were modelled on 53% turnout, with a margin of error of plus or minus three points, from a representative sample of 1 038 registered voters.

The IRR’s data accords with polling produced by The Common Sense, which has also found that South Africa has a large moderate majority that broadly agrees on how the country should be run and what policies its government should pursue.

That moderate majority is a very important countervailing force in favour of South Africa’s success.