Mixed Results in South Africa's By-Elections Highlight Fluid Political Landscape

Eight by-elections were held in various parts of the country yesterday, with a mixed bag of results for most parties.

The Democratic Alliance (DA) defended two seats, one in Gauteng and one in the Eastern Cape.

In Johannesburg’s Ward 90, which includes Craighall, Illovo, and Hyde Park, the DA easily defended a seat, winning over 95% of the vote. The ANC was the only party to field a candidate in the by-election.

The DA’s other successful defence was in Kouga (Jeffreys Bay) in the Eastern Cape.

Here it won just under 50% of the vote yesterday, a similar proportion to what it won in the 2021 local government election (LGE) in the municipality. The ANC won 25% of the vote yesterday, a sharp decline from the 43% it won in 2021. Meanwhile, the Patriotic Alliance (PA), won 28% of the vote in the by-election, a significant jump from the 1% it won in 2021.

The ANC also held three seats in yesterday’s by-election.

Its first successful defence was in Makana (Grahamstown). Here it managed 50% of the vote yesterday, with the DA on 26% and a local party, the Makana Citizens’ Front winning 10%. The PA won 6%.

However, in 2021 the ANC had won over two-thirds of the vote, so this is a relatively steep decline. In addition, the DA had won only 2% in the 2021 LGE so this is also a significant increase for the party.

The ANC‘s second successful defence was in Merafong City (West Rand). Here the ANC won 49% in the by-election, enough to give it the ward with the opposition vote split. However, the party had won more than three-quarters of the vote in 2021, signifying another significant decline for the party in an urban Gauteng ward.

The main challengers yesterday were ActionSA, with 16% of the vote, and the Economic Freedom Fighters, with 20%.

The party also defended a seat in Hantam (Calvinia) in the Northern Cape.

In 2021 the DA had won the ward with 35% of the vote in a split field. The ANC had won 21% and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) 30% in that poll. In a by-election held in December last year, the ANC won the seat off the DA, winning 46% of the vote, against the DA's 34%.

In yesterday’s by-election the ANC won 42% of the vote, holding the ward, against the DA’s 38%, with the FF+ securing 10%, and the PA 12%.

The PA will be particularly happy with its performance as its candidate won only 1% of the vote in the ward in 2021 and the party didn't field a candidate in the 2024 by-election.

The ANC also lost three seats yesterday.

The first unsuccessful defence was in Mandeni, a bit north of Durban on the KwaZulu-Natal coast.

Here the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) snatched a ward off the ANC winning 61% of the vote, while the ANC saw its vote share decline from 67% to 30%.

This is the second ward the MK has taken off the ANC in the municipality, having won a by-election in April this year.

The loss now means that the ANC only holds 17 of the 35 municipal council seats, meaning it may have to secure a coalition partner to continue to govern the municipality.

The second loss for the ANC was in Kou-Kamma, a municipality which lies on the Eastern Cape’s border with the Western Cape.

Yesterday the PA won the ward, beating the ANC by 60 votes, out of nearly 2 600 cast.

The PA won 44% of the vote, with the ANC managing 42%. The DA was third with 14%.

The PA will be pleased with this performance as it won only 3% of the vote in the 2021 LGE in the ward. In terms of raw votes it won 44 votes in 2021, growing strongly to 1 142 votes in yesterday’s by-election.

This is the second ward the PA has won off the ANC in the municipality, having taken a ward in September.

The ANC now has four seats on the 12-seat municipal council, with the PA and DA each having three.

The final by-election held yesterday was in Siyancuma (Douglas) in the Northern Cape.

Here an independent candidate took a ward off the ANC. The independent, Danfrid Morolong, won 47% of the vote yesterday, with the ANC winning 25%, a sharp decline from the 55% it won in 2021. The PA also did well here, winning 20% of the vote, after not fielding a candidate in the ward in 2021.

Overall, the PA will be most pleased with its day’s work, winning one ward and increasing its vote in wards across the country.

The ANC continues to be under pressure, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, although overall it will be relatively disappointed with its performance.