There are two threats to the Government of National Unity (GNU) that will manifest in 2026.

The first comes in April, when the Democratic Alliance (DA) goes to a conference to pick a new leader. John Steenhuisen, the current leader, is under great internal pressure. The DA was never fully united behind the decision to enter the GNU.

Some tension exists between GNU insiders in the party, those in and near the Cabinet, and those overlooked for such positions. There are also concerns that the DA is compromised by its close association with the African National Congress (ANC) and that the poor economic performance of the country under the GNU will come to further compromise the DA.

Steenhuisen has, however, been firmly committed to the GNU. He was central to guiding his party into that arrangement in the face of some considerable opposition and has had to fend off internal critics to keep his party in the government.

A view exists around the DA that it might be better to force the ANC into reliance on uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) as this would accelerate declining public confidence in the ANC and improve the DA’s long-term electoral chances.

Another view exists that the DA should exit the government and instead offer the ANC a support-and-confidence arrangement, whereby the DA would support the passage of the budget and help the ANC to survive votes of no confidence in Parliament on condition that it meets certain DA policy demands.

If Steenhuisen is replaced as DA leader, there is a prospect that the new DA leadership comes to consider these alternative governance options and is thereby prepared to walk out of the GNU.

Into the second half of the year campaigning for South Africa’s next local government elections will be hotting up. These will take place late in the year or early in 2027. Polls show that the ANC is very much on the back foot relative to the DA, especially in South Africa’s major urban centres. Yesterday The Common Sense reported that “current trends suggest the DA could surpass the ANC in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay, eThekwini, and possibly Ekurhuleni, while retaining its majority in Cape Town. This would place the DA in a strong position to lead governing coalitions in most major cities, in some cases with the ANC reduced to a junior partner.”

Given the stakes, and potential further electoral humiliation of the ANC, the nature of the campaigning between the ANC and the DA will be fraught.

The ANC has to date remained committed to the GNU. However, sources around that party say it would welcome a break-up of the GNU on condition that the DA triggered it and staged a walk-out. In that event the ANC would look to run a minority government, seeking support from either the DA or MK and the EFF to pass any matters that come before Parliament.

The 2026 risk to the GNU is therefore in the intersection of two sets of events. If the DA jettisons Steenhuisen in favour of a leadership less committed to remaining in the GNU, and if campaigning around the local government polls turns to sharp animosity, then the GNU may not survive 2026.

Mitigating against that is public opinion.

Polls from the fourth quarter of 2025 conducted by the Social Research Foundation show that 64% of ANC voters thought their party was performing well within the GNU. For DA voters that number was 57%. More than half of voters felt the GNU would ultimately succeed, whereas under a third thought it would fail. Almost 60% of voters agreed that the ANC and DA should do a deal to jointly govern any municipality in which neither party achieved an absolute majority after the next local government elections.

Public confidence in the GNU and its potential to right South Africa was therefore very high at the end of 2025.

Marius Roodt told The Common Sense, “With data as strong as that, any party that was seen by the public as being responsible for breaking the GNU would likely pay a very heavy long-term political price.”