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South Africa’s political future will be shaped by one central question: whether the African National Congress (ANC) can regain a national majority, and if so, how. A special scenario report published by The Common Sense suggests that the ANC’s path back to dominance, if that is to occur, is more likely to come through democratic recovery than through authoritarian consolidation

The Common Sense has produced a set of three new scenarios for how South Africa will evolve between now and 2034.

In the newspaper’s benchmark scenario, the ANC does not recover a majority. Instead, it continues to operate as a declining but central governing party within coalition arrangements, most likely alongside the Democratic Alliance (DA) or through confidence-and-supply agreements. Internal fragmentation and leadership turnover prevent the emergence of a unified reform programme, but the party retains enough support to remain politically indispensable. In this scenario, the ANC becomes a long-run governing actor without ever regaining outright dominance. Its electoral ceiling stabilises well below 50%, and governance is defined by negotiation rather than control.

In the upside scenario, the ANC does regain a majority, but it does so through democratic renewal rather than coercion. This outcome depends on the emergence of credible leadership capable of restoring investment confidence, improving governance performance, and stabilising internal factions. A reform-oriented leadership shift allows the party to reassemble parts of its historical coalition while expanding appeal among moderate and business-aligned voters. In this pathway, electoral recovery is driven by improved economic performance, not institutional capture. The ANC returns to majority status because voters experience higher growth, better services, and improved state capacity. This is the only scenario in which the party meaningfully rebuilds dominance within a democratic framework.

In the downside scenario, the ANC also retains or restores majority control, but through a very different mechanism. Rather than improving performance, it consolidates power through political hardening, alliance shifts toward more radical partners, and increased use of state authority. Coalition partners such as the DA are excluded, and governance shifts toward more centralised control with weaker institutional constraints. In this environment, electoral dominance is preserved or restored, but at the cost of democracy, investor confidence, and economic stability. Growth deteriorates, capital flight increases, and state power expands in coercive rather than developmental form.

Whilst the political pathways are extremely important the scenarios go into some detail on their economic implications. For economic indicators ranging from the currency to the inflation rate those are vast. On the rand for example the upside scenario sees a considerable strengthening even beyond purchasing parity level. Under the downside the rand sees the kind of collapse to north of R100 to the US dollar that the Argentinian peso experiences in the 1980s.

To learn more about The Common Sense’s scenario special report click here.