Brent crude briefly broke below $90 on hopes of an extended ceasefire, a signal that traders are beginning to price in a lower immediate risk of sustained supply disruption. That shift reflects growing expectations that the current pause in hostilities may hold long enough to allow for more structured negotiations.

On the diplomatic front, Pakistan has continued its role as an active intermediary.

Its army chief has been in Tehran to press the Iranian leadership to extend the ceasefire and to arrange follow-up talks with the United States (US). The Common Sense understands that both sides are open to extending talks, suggesting that neither Washington nor Tehran sees immediate advantage, at this time, in returning to full-scale confrontation.

At the same time, the US has sought to reinforce its strategic position.

Washington says it has control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint through which Iran’s oil exports flow. The consequence is to choke off Iranian revenues, whilst causing China to burn more quickly through its crude reserves which The Common Sense has previously suggested is a strategy to pressure the Iranians towards renewed talks and an agreement to abandon their nuclear weapon ambitions.

At the same time, US military pressure has not been lifted.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has warned that strikes may resume if Iran does not engage meaningfully in talks. That conditional threat underlines the current status-quo - diplomacy is being given space, but under the shadow of credible force.

Taken together, these developments align closely with this newspaper’s original broad assessment that the conflict is more likely to conclude via a nearer-term exit point, rather than a prolonged escalation. The incentives on both sides appear, for now, to favour managed de-escalation over open-ended war and the oil price reflects the result.