President Donald Trump said this week that the American military campaign against Iran was “nearing completion”, while warning that strikes would continue in the weeks ahead, leaving markets and governments weighing the prospect of a longer conflict.

President Trump framed the campaign as approaching its end, saying United States (US) forces were “on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly”. He said Iran’s military capacity had been “severely degraded” and described American operations as having established control over key areas. He did not define the final conditions for success, but said the campaign would continue until “our objectives are fully met”.

He presented the conflict as one in which the balance had already shifted decisively. Iran’s ability to project force had been “reduced to a level not seen in decades”, he said, and its leadership was operating under sustained pressure.

At the same time, he signalled further escalation in the near term. Iran would be hit “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks”, he said, warning that failure to comply would bring additional consequences. The combination of an assertion of progress with a commitment to continued strikes left the timing and conditions of any end to the campaign unclear.

Trump also shifted part of the burden for securing global energy flows. Other countries, particularly those reliant on Gulf oil, should “take responsibility” for protecting the Strait of Hormuz, he said. The remark introduced uncertainty around co-ordination with allies at a time when shipping routes and energy supply remain central to the economic impact of the war.

Markets responded to the signal of continued risk, with Brent Crude prices rising and equity markets falling across Asia.

The rand weakened against the dollar, reflecting a broader move into safer assets as uncertainty around the conflict increased.

Diplomatic responses pointed in a similar direction. French president Emmanuel Macron said that the role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was limited to “Euro-Atlantic security” and “not offensive missions” in the Strait of Hormuz. In Berlin, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said, “This is not our war.”

This divergence underscores the widening gap between Washington and its allies over both the scope and the end of the conflict.

For South Africa, the petrol price rose by R3.06 per litre in April, while diesel increased by up to R7.51 per litre, following a surge in the price of global oil linked to the conflict. Inland petrol prices are now approaching R25 per litre, with diesel nearing R26 per litre, among the highest levels on record.

As The Common Sense has reported, “The immediate threat is not a nationwide fuel shortage. It is a rise in prices.” The country produces only a small proportion of its fuel and relies heavily on imports, much of it linked to supply routes through the Gulf. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz therefore feeds directly into domestic costs.

President Trump’s address was intended to convey that the US is close to achieving its objectives in Iran. The combination of an optimistic assessment and a warning of continued strikes left that outcome uncertain.