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The African National Congress (ANC) could be trounced in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB) in the 2026 local government elections (LGE), due to be held on 4 November, but is looking more solid in Buffalo City.

This is according to an analysis by The Common Sense, which looked at election results in the Eastern Cape’s two metros, going back to 2014.

It forms part of a series of analyses The Common Sense will be doing on election results in the country’s metros and other large towns, to get a sense of what may happen ahead of the next LGE.

You can read TheCommon Sense analysis on what may happen in the Gauteng metros here.

Nelson Mandela Bay

If electoral trends of the past decade or so hold, the ANC could be under severe pressure in the upcoming LGE, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) emerging as the biggest party.

In 2014 the ANC had won nearly 50% of the vote in the metro, with the DA on 40.2%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) came a distant third with 4.3%, with just over 6% of voters opting to support a smaller party, other than the Big Three. In 2019 both the ANC and the DA experienced slight declines, with the ANC’s vote share dropping to 46.9% and the DA’s to 37.9%, while the EFF grew to 7.6%. There was also a small increase in the proportion of people who voted for parties other than the Big Three, reaching 7.6%.

In 2024 the ANC and DA both experienced declines, but the ANC’s was more significant. In 2024 only 38.5% of people in NMB voted for it (a decline of more than eight points compared to 2019) while 35.2% of people in NMB voted for the DA, a decline of just over two points. The EFF saw its vote share grow to 10.9%, with the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) not gaining significant traction, winning only one percent of the vote. However, the proportion of those voting for smaller parties more than doubled, to 14.4%.

As was the case in the Gauteng metros, the ANC did worse in the subsequent LGE, as compared to the national election, while the DA, conversely, did better.

For example, the DA outpolled the ANC in 2016 with 46.7% (nearly seven points more than it got in 2014) while the ANC won 40.9%, nearly nine points fewer than it won in 2014. The EFF was fairly flat, at 5.1%, compared to 2014.

In 2021, the situation was similar, with the DA outpolling the ANC again, but by a much smaller margin. In 2021 the DA won 39.9% (two points more than it won in 2019) while the ANC won 39.4%, seven points lower than its 2019 result.

The EFF saw a slight decline, winning 6.4%, compared to 7.6% in 2019.

Like the Gauteng, metros there was a big increase in people voting for smaller parties – in 2021 the proportion of the vote that went to smaller parties was 14.3%, up from 7.3% in 2016.

If the trend holds into 2026, then the DA is likely to poll in the low 40s, while the ANC will poll in the low or mid-30s.

Buffalo City

Buffalo City is one of the metros in the country where the ANC does best, and after 2021 was one of only three of the eight metros (along with Mangaung and Cape Town) that wasn’t governed by a coalition.

On current trends the ANC could also narrowly retain its majority in the city in the November LGE.

In 2014 the ANC won nearly 70% of the vote in the city, while the DA won 18.9%, and the EFF 6.0%. Smaller parties cumulatively secured 7.1%. In 2019 the ANC experienced only a small decline in its vote share, winning 66.5% in 2019, while the DA saw a drop to 16.6%, with the EFF almost doubling its vote share, to 11.3%. The proportion of voters who voted for smaller parties declined, an unusual result, with only 5.6% of people in the city voting for parties other than the Big Three. In 2024 the ANC saw a relatively large decline, dropping to 56.9% in 2024, with the DA declining slightly compared to 2019, to 16.4%. The EFF saw a large increase, winning 16.0%, only slightly behind the DA. (Buffalo City is the only metro in South Africa where the gap between the EFF and DA was smaller than ten points in 2024.) The proportion of those voting for smaller parties rose slightly to 9.2%.

Like in NMB, the MKP did fairly poorly, winning only 1.5%.

The comparison in vote shares between national and local elections showed the same pattern as in the Gauteng metros – ANC declines and DA advances.

In 2016, the ANC won 58.7%, nearly ten points below what it won in 2014, while the DA secured 23.4%, nearly five points more than what it won in 2014. The EFF had a marginal increase of two points, to 8.0%.

In 2021 the trend was the same – the ANC won 59.4%, down seven points from its 2019 number, while the DA was up three points to 19.5%. The EFF was fairly flat in 2021 compared to 2019 – winning 12.1% in 2021, slightly less than a point more than it won in 2019.

The proportion of those voting for smaller parties in 2021 was lower than it was in 2016. In 2016 the proportion of those who voted for a party other than the Big Three was 9.9%, this declined to 9.0% in 2021.

If the trend holds, the ANC is likely to retain its majority in 2026, but a relatively narrower one, while it is possible that the DA will breach 20%, with the EFF not far behind.

While the ANC is looking down the barrel in NBM, it is looking better a few hundred kilometres up the Eastern Cape coast, in Buffalo City. However, even there the trend is not positive for the party, and in Buffalo City it would not come as a major surprise if it were also forced into a coalition in that metro.