According to the raw Ipsos data, which did not adjust for turnout or undecided voters, the African National Congress (ANC) stands on 35% among registered voters in the national vote. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is second on 22%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) are tied on 11% each. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) records 3%, ActionSA 2%, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) 3%, and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) 1%.

Among metropolitan local government voters, the ANC still leads, but the DA posts a stronger result than it does nationally. The ANC records 35% and the DA rises to 25%. The EFF stands on 13%, while MKP reaches 14%. The PA records 4%, ActionSA 4%, the IFP 2%, the FF+ 1%, and 2% choose other parties.

Ipsos did not adjust these topline figures for turnout, and undecided voters were not allocated to parties. That means the published numbers should be read as raw standings rather than as an election result estimate. The poll was also conducted three months ago so it reflects the political state of play as it was in the first quarter of the year.

The Common Sense conducted its own allocation calculation on the raw national Ipsos data. This suggested that, if an election had been held in the first quarter of this year, the ANC would have won 40% of the national vote, with the DA at 25%. That is broadly in line with other estimates seen by The Common Sense, including those from its own polling work.