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The Democratic Alliance (DA) is likely to retain its hold on Cape Town fairly easily in the local government elections (LGE), due to be held in November.

This is according to an analysis conducted by The Common Sense, part of a series looking at historical election results in various cities and towns across South Africa, to determine what may happen in the LGE.

You can read our analyses of what is likely to happen in the Gauteng metros, the Eastern Cape metros, and in eThekwini here, here, and here.

Cape Town

In 2014, the DA won nearly 60% of the vote in Cape Town, with the African National Congress (ANC) on 32.4%. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) managed 2.7%, with the proportion of people voting for smaller parties being 5.6%.

The DA saw a decline in 2019, with its vote share dropping to 53.0%, and the ANC seeing a more marginal decline, to 30.5%, The EFF was just below 5% of the vote, while the proportion of people voting for smaller parties doubled, to 11.6%.

In the most recent election, in 2024, the DA saw a slight increase, growing from 53.0% in 2019 to 53.1% in 2024, with the ANC dropping by almost nine points, winning only 21.9% of the vote in Cape Town. The EFF saw a small increase, going to 7.3% from 4.9%, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), perhaps unsurprisingly, did poorly, winning less than 1% of the vote. The proportion of people who voted for smaller parties grew again, to nearly 17%.

Comparing LGEs to the previous national election reveals a now-familiar pattern: ANC decline and DA advancement.

In 2016, the DA won two-thirds of the vote, a seven-point jump from the 59.3% it won in 2014, while the ANC slumped to 24.4% from 32.4%. The EFF was fairly flat, on 3.2%. The proportion of people who voted for parties other than the Big Three was 5.8%.

In 2021 the DA’s vote share was again higher than the corresponding previous national election. In that LGE it won 58.3%, more than the 53.0% it won in 2019, while the ANC saw a catastrophic decline, falling to 18.6%, from 30.5%. The EFF was on 4.1% (down from 4.9% in 2019). However, the proportion of people who voted for parties other than the DA, ANC, and EFF grew to nearly 20% in 2021, the highest it had been in any of the five elections between 2014 and 2024.

In the final analysis, if the trends hold, the DA is likely to retain its majority in Cape Town, while the ANC could face a disaster on the scale of that it faces in eThekwini, where it could be reduced to a 10% party. But another important trend to watch is the proportion of people voting for parties other than the Big Three (or Big Four, if you include MK) – this is a growing trend and South African politics is likely to continue to fracture in the future, which will make building stable coalitions a difficult proposition.

In a final note on trends, in 2006 Cape Town was the only metro where the ANC did not win a majority and it was only a few points behind the DA. Today, it is possible that the only metro where a party wins a majority is the DA in Cape Town, with the ANC likely to come second to the DA in a number of other metros, and possibly come only fourth in eThekwini.