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The Common Sense recently analysed historic election results in the eight metros, to determine what may happen ahead of the local government elections (LGE), due to be held in November. This data was supplemented by polling conducted by the Social Research Foundation, in conjunction with The Common Sense, where it was available.

However, while the battle for the biggest cities will be important, what happens in South Africa’s smaller cities and larger towns will also be vital. In addition, some of South Africa’s towns – though not classified as metros – have bigger populations than some of the metros, underscoring their importance.

For example, Polokwane in Limpopo, Msunduzi in KwaZulu-Natal, and Emfuleni in Gauteng all have bigger populations than Mangaung in the Free State, South Africa’s smallest metro.

Control of these towns is also important – policy can be directed from them, they act as important economic and administrative centres, they can be places where patronage is dished out, and they can also give further insight into the direction of political travel. It matters which party is in control of these places.

Over the next few days The Common Sense will analyse historical electoral results in South Africa’s biggest non-metro municipalities. Is the African National Congress (ANC) facing a wipeout similar to what it faces in the eight metros? Can the Democratic Alliance (DA) break through in these places? And is the proportion of the vote going to smaller parties also increasing here, as they are in the metros?

While national elections and local elections are not strictly comparable, they can give insights into political trends and the direction of travel.

The first two non-metro municipalities under The Common Sense’s microscope are Msunduzi (encompassing Pietermaritzburg), the second-biggest city in KwaZulu-Natal and the capital of the province, and the Limpopo capital, Polokwane, which is also the biggest city in the province.

What can we expect in November in these two cities?

Msunduzi

The ANC is facing a disaster in Msunduzi similar to the scale it will face in eThekwini and most other municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, where the party is likely to struggle to win even double digits. But the sheer scale of the ANC’s decline in the city is remarkable.

In 2014 the ANC won over 70% of the vote, with the DA just shy of 17%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 2.0%. The proportion of votes cast for parties other than the Big Three national parties was 9.0%.

In 2019 the ANC saw a slight decline, to 64.3%, with the DA also sliding backwards, to 15.4%. The EFF saw a fivefold increase, winning more than 10% of the vote in the municipality, with the votes going to smaller parties also increasing marginally, to 9.5%. In 2024, like in eThekwini, the ANC suffered a decline that can only be considered catastrophic, falling to 18.0%. The DA was only slightly behind, on 17.8%, with the EFF dropping to 2.9%.

The reason for the ANC’s decline is obvious – the rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), which won 52.2% of the vote.

The proportion of people voting for smaller parties remained fairly flat, at 9.1%.

The ANC’s decline was also apparent in the two local elections held in the period between 2014 and 2024.

In the first – held in 2016 – the ANC won 66.1%, a slight decline on the 72.1% it managed in 2014. The DA won nearly 20% of the vote, while the EFF doubled its vote share as compared to 2014, to 4.1%. The proportion of those voting for smaller parties was again flat, at 10.6%.

In 2021, an ANC decline was becoming clear. It narrowly failed to win a majority in the city, and had to go into coalition with the African Independent Congress to retain control of the KwaZulu-Natal capital. In 2021 it won 48.3%, a 16-point decline compared to 2019 and a 20-point decline compared to 2016. Meanwhile, the DA saw some growth – compared to 2016 it grew by a fraction of a percentage point to 19.3%, but nearly four points compared to 2019. The EFF also had a good election, growing to 11.8%. However, the proportion of those voting for parties other than the Big Three national parties doubled to 20.6%.

If these trends hold into 2026, MKP will be close to winning a majority in the city, with the ANC likely to win around 10%. The DA will probably be the primary opposition party on the council, with the EFF likely to win a fifth of the council seats it controls now.

Polokwane

Polokwane is emerging as an anomaly in the analysis conducted by The Common Sense so far – on the historical trends it could be a municipality where the ANC manages to retain its majority relatively comfortably.

In 2014 the ANC won just more than two-thirds of the vote – 67.9%. The DA won just over 10%, while the EFF did well in its first election, winning 16.3%. This was a relatively unsurprising result as Polokwane is the hometown of the EFF leader, Julius Malema.

In 2019 the ANC saw only a marginal decline, to 66.1%, while the DA fell fairly sharply, to 7.0%. The EFF broke the 20% barrier, winning 21.7% of the vote.

In 2024 the ANC saw another decline, to 61.6%, with the DA recovering somewhat, to 8.4%. The EFF also saw marginal growth, to 22.6%. MKP did not perform well in the municipality in 2024, winning less than 1% of the vote.

The local elections in the period that is being analysed saw the ANC vote share hold up and even grow between 2016 and 2021, a relative anomaly.

In 2016, the ANC won 57.2% of the vote (ten points lower than 2014) while the DA won 11.0%, slightly more than its 2014 result. Meanwhile the EFF secured 28.2% of the vote in Polokwane, which is still the EFF’s best municipal result to date.

In 2021, the ANC’s vote share grew to 60.1% (six points below its 2019 result) while the DA saw its vote share decline to 7.3%, compared to 2016 (and only a marginal improvement on 2019). The EFF saw its vote share decline significantly, losing more than five points compared to 2016, dropping from 28.2% of the vote, to 22.9%.

The role of smaller parties in Polokwane has also been negligible – smaller parties have never attracted more than 10% of the total vote in the municipality between 2014 and 2024.

Given the trends in Limpopo’s biggest city and capital, it is likely that the ANC will retain its majority. It is unlikely to do what it did between 2016 and 2021 and see its vote share increase, but Limpopo, along with the Eastern Cape, has been one of the provinces in which the ANC historically performs best, meaning that its majority in Polokwane is likely safe.