Paul Mashatile has been plagued by ill health for some time and his absence from public appearances has forced the question of what the implications would be if he was unable to continue in office.

The most recent report from his office is that he is recovering from a minor surgical procedure, with spokesperson Keith Khoza stating that “The deputy president is recovering well and remains in contact with his office.” The nature of his condition, and its seriousness, remains undisclosed.

Should the implications of his poor health prevent him from continuing as Deputy President of the country, or from contesting for the leadership of the African National Congress (ANC), the balance of power in the race for the ANC and South Africa's next leader would shift markedly.

This is particularly so given that Fikile Mbalula, his key declared rival, has had his candidacy severely undermined by his role in the ANC local government candidate registration crisis. Mbalula is the chief administration officer of the ANC and responsible for registrations. He has defended the party’s handling of the submissions and resisted personal blame, saying, “That is a serious loss, and I will not minimise it.” But within ANC ranks the disaster he has presided over has escalated fears of what would befall the party if he became its leader.

If Mashatile is out of the race and Mbalula discredited, focus will increasingly move towards the prospect of Patrice Motsepe.

The Common Sense has reported at length on the Motsepe candidacy and is the only media group in the country making the case that he is a candidate and that should his team see a way through the ANC December 2027 conference he will run and could take the ANC back to a national majority.

The Common Sense has also reported that Motsepe is far and away the most popular candidate to succeed Ramaphosa.

A particular twist is that if Mashatile is incapacitated then Ramaphosa will have the opportunity to pick a new deputy president for the country which will be a strong indicator of where the balance of power in the ANC is shifting as that party looks to find its next leader.