The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win 57.1% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Cape Town in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the ANC on 14.0%. 

The predictions, published on Thursday afternoon, are based on results from 32.1% of voting districts having been declared in the metro. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result. 

The model projects that the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will each win 3.7%, with the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) on 3.2%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the metro.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 53.4% for the Mother City. 

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.