The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) will win 31.9% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the African National Congress (ANC) on 19.3%.

The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from 15.0% of voting districts having been declared in the province. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) will secure 18.9% of the provincial vote, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 17.0%. Other parties are collectively projected to secure 2.8%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the province.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 54.7% in KwaZulu-Natal.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.