The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win 31.7% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Gauteng in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the African National Congress (ANC) on 21.2%.

The predictions, published on Thursday afternoon, are based on results from 22.5% of voting districts having been declared in the province. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that ActionSA will secure 17.3% of the provincial vote, followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 6.1%, and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) on 5.1%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the province.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 52.9% in Gauteng.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.