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There is a growing uncertainty around President Cyril Ramaphosa’s future, as The Common Sense has reported at length. While he seems set to pursue a “Stalingrad” strategy in an effort to evade having to testify before an impeachment committee, that is not necessarily a sustainable long-term strategy to evade justice.

Should he be forced in front of that committee, there is reason to believe he might resign from office. He might likewise resign in the face of an imminent vote of no confidence, especially were that to take place by secret ballot. He might even lose an impeachment vote if that were held by secret ballot. Leaks about the source of the funds stolen from his farmhouse may equally force a resignation.

Previous reporting in The Common Sense has showed that a majority of voters would support a motion of no confidence against Ramaphosa.

These events are forcing the minds of South Africans to turn more acutely to the question of who might succeed him.

Polls conducted by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation asked African National Congress (ANC) voters who they wanted to succeed Ramaphosa as leader of the party.

The poll, conducted in late February and early March, showed that businessman Patrice Motsepe was the clear favourite among ANC voters, with 47% saying they preferred him as Ramaphosa’s successor.

Fikile Mbalula, the Secretary-General of the party, followed on 19%, ahead of Deputy President Paul Mashatile on 16%.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa drew 4%, while Senzo Mchunu, the suspended police minister, stood at 3%.

It is pretty clear that the ANC’s own voters are not rallying most strongly behind the party’s existing internal succession machinery, in the form of a race between Mbalula and Mashatile. Instead, almost half of ANC voters favoured Motsepe, a figure outside the formal party leadership race, but one with considerable public recognition.

For the ANC, the import is that the party may sooner rather than later be forced to choose not only whether it is viable to continue defending Ramaphosa, but who can hold its voters together after he goes. Yet party insiders who spoke to The Common Sense say that no ordered succession plan is in place, and they fear that the loss of Ramaphosa in the absence of such a plan may throw their party into chaos.