Frans Cronje says the Medium-Term Budget’s good headline numbers hide a state taking more of the economy. Gross debt is revised down from 78.9% to 78.4% of GDP, and this year’s deficit from 4.0% to 3.9%. But spending rises from 32.6% to 33.4% of GDP, and revenue from 28.6% to 29.5%. Growth for the year is cut from 1.6% to 1.2%. “It looks good. It's very bad,” says Cronje. Mark Oppenheimer argues that South Africa needs Milei-style reforms, and Richard Tren asks whether things must get worse before they get better.