Frans Cronje breaks down the latest developments, explaining why inflation-adjusted Brent crude stayed around the long-term average of $101 per barrel despite the conflict, thanks to strong OECD inventories and market shock absorbers.

With a potential deal imminent, he forecasts Brent crude falling back to $65–$75 per barrel, which should see South African petrol prices return to the low R20s in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.