New Social Research Foundation polling from July 2026 puts Patrice Motsepe at 36.5% as the public's pick to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the African National Congress (ANC) — roughly twice the support of any rival, and the only figure in the race with a positive net favourability rating. Frans Cronje and Gabriel Makin unpack the succession numbers, the favourability data on Ramaphosa, Paul Mashatile, and Fikile Mbalula, and why the ANC's route back to electoral success runs through a choice it may not make.

A note to readers: This video was intended to be behind our paywall, but in The Common Sense's editorial meeting yesterday, it was decided to waive that to give readers an insight into the quality of the analysis that typically sits behind the paywall. Welcome in!