The CSIR's results model, which has called South Africans elections accurately in the past, puts the ANC on about 32% and the DA on about 27% in the 2026 local government elections. Gabriel Makin and Marius Roodt go through the model and what they mean if the numbers hold.

The headlines:

→ No outright majority in Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, or Mangaung or the three Gauteng metros

→ Cape Town looks set to be the only metro in the country with a majority

→ The ANC, MKP, and EFF together are under 50% for the first time

→ The EFF and MK are both down, and those voters aren't going back to the ANC

→ Over a hundred hung councils mean a lot of coalition deals