New polling from the SRF and The Common Sense, conducted in July 2026, shows support for the ANC down from 42% to 32% in Pretoria, with the DA at 43% and a potential Freedom Front Plus and DA coalition holding enough support to govern the capital outright. Frans Cronje and Gabriel Makin walk through the numbers, the coalition maths, and what the collapse of ANC support in the capital says about the fragmentation of South Africa's politics.