Residents of the province of Alberta in Canada are heading to the polls in a referendum today on whether to remain part of Canada or move towards independence, highlighting a separatist impulse that is often hidden from the outside world.

The referendum result would not be binding, and would not empower an Albertan declaration of independence. Instead, voters are being asked whether the province should remain in Canada or proceed towards a future vote on separation. This would require complex negotiations involving the federal government, other provinces, and indigenous peoples.

The vote follows years of frustration among many Albertans over federal energy and climate policies, which have hit the oil-rich jurisdiction hard. The grievances have been decades in the making, going back to the National Energy Program introduced by former prime minister Pierre Trudeau in the 1980s. More recently, opposition to extreme climate measures under his son, Justin Trudeau, and resistance to Covid-19 restrictions helped mobilise support for the independence movement.

Alberta, which has some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has long been a focal point of tensions between western Canada and the federal government. Separatists argue that the province contributes more to the national economy than it receives in return and that federal policies have constrained the development of its energy industry.

Albertans tend also to have a more politically and socially conservative outlook than that prevailing among the country’s governing elites or in its major metropolitan centres. There is also a strong tradition of links to the United States.

Pressure on the right-of-centre provincial government on this issue had been growing in recent years – including through a petition that garnered 300 000 signatures – and in May, Premier Danielle Smith said it was “time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on”. Her play is that a referendum defeat will defang the issue.

Smith is opposed to independence; most national and provincial parties are also opposed, although there are divisions on the matter within Smith’s United Conservative Party.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned of dire consequences should Alberta choose to split from Canada. For Carney, the parallels with the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom in 2016 would be stark. He was governor of the Bank of England at the time; the referendum had been called in an attempt to settle an issue that had divided the then ruling Conservative Party. He has stated, however, that “the frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real”.

Smith has warned that separation would carry substantial costs. In June, she estimated that the transition could cost C$400 billion, along with C$25 billion to C$50 billion a year in expenses associated with setting up the workings of a new country.

The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy estimated that separation could cost as much as C$170 billion over five years, while warning that the longer-term financial consequences would be unpredictable.

As a large, self-consciously multicultural society, separatist tensions in Canada have a long history, most notably around Francophone Quebec. Indigenous groups exist with varying degrees of autonomy. Albertan separatism appears to be fuelled by a backlash against specific policies and a provincial resource nationalism.

Alongside the separation question, Albertan voters are being asked a slate of questions on constitutional and migration issues, generally to gauge views on whether more of these powers should be exercised at provincial level.