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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the supporters of the two governing parties are moving in opposite directions, and by far more than likely voters as a whole. Among African National Congress (ANC) voters, the share who say they have given the elections a lot of thought has risen from 39% to 54% since November. Among Democratic Alliance (DA) voters it has fallen from 44% to 35%. Across likely voters as a whole the change is far smaller, up six points. Thought given to an election is not the same as turning out to vote, but parties win local elections by getting their own supporters to the polls, and in July the ANC's supporters were thinking about it more than the DA's. The chart below shows the share of likely voters, in total and by the party they support, who say they have given the local government elections a lot of thought.

* The figures come from two Social Research Foundation Market Surveys conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single frame random digit dialling design was used in each round, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. Each sample was fully weighted to match the registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. Figures in this piece are for likely voters under that model. Each round carries a national margin of error of 4.0% at a 95.0% confidence level.

The rounds were: 27 October to 15 November 2025, 1 002 respondents, 551 likely voters, design effect 1.7620; and 8 to 31 July 2026, 2 214 respondents, 1 583 likely voters, design effect 3.7938.