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New polling* from The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation shows the national mood has not moved. In five rounds since February last year, about seven in ten likely voters have said the country is going in the wrong direction every time, and about one in five have said the right direction. The Government of National Unity formed, a budget fight came and went, and a local government election drew closer. None of it shifted the answer. The gloomiest reading was November last year, at 77%, and the most recent is 71%, but no movement in this series is large enough for the survey to call a change. The chart below shows the share of likely voters saying South Africa is going in the right or the wrong direction at each round of polling since February 2025.

* The figures come from five Social Research Foundation Market Surveys conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single frame random digit dialling design was used in each round, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. Each sample was fully weighted to match the registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. Figures in this piece are for likely voters under that model. Each round carries a national margin of error of 4.0% at a 95.0% confidence level.

The rounds were: 4 to 19 February 2025, 1 004 respondents, 582 likely voters, design effect 2.0127; 28 May to 9 June 2025, 1 004 respondents, 747 likely voters, design effect 2.0069; 27 October to 15 November 2025, 1 002 respondents, 551 likely voters, design effect 1.7620; 20 February to 6 March 2026, 2 222 respondents, 1 199 likely voters, design effect 3.2675; and 8 to 31 July 2026, 2 214 respondents, 1 583 likely voters, design effect 3.7938.