CSIR Model Predicts ANC at 31.7%, DA at 25.7% Nationally
Politics Desk
– November 5, 2026
1 min read
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the African National Congress (ANC) will win 31.7% of the national proportional representation (PR) vote in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 25.7%.
The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from 13.0% of voting districts having been declared. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.
The model projects that the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) will secure 9.0% of the national vote, followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 6.1%, and ActionSA on 5.1%.
The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results, as well as The Common Sense’s October poll numbers.
The CSIR model also predicts national voter turnout of 52.1%.
The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.
