The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the African National Congress (ANC) will win 37.3% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Mangaung’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 30.2%.

The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from just under a quarter of voting districts having been declared. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will win 8.4%, the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) 6.2%, and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) 3.1%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout in the metro of 51.3%.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.