The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the African National Congress (ANC) will win 39.9% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Buffalo City's 2026 local government elections, followed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 18.2%.

The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from just over a third of voting districts having been declared. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the United Democratic Movement (UDM) will win 9.9%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 7.2%, and the South African Communist Party (SACP) 5.1%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout in the metro of 51.1%.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.