The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will win 41.0% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Nelson Mandela Bay’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the African National Congress (ANC) on 28.8%.

The predictions, published on Thursday morning, are based on results from nearly 30% of voting districts having been declared. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) will win 5.4%, the Patriotic Alliance (PA) 3.8%, and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) 3.6%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout in the metro of 52.4%.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.