The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) predicts that the African National Congress (ANC) will win 52.3% of the proportional representation (PR) vote in Limpopo in South Africa’s 2026 local government elections, followed by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 11.4%.

The predictions, published on Thursday afternoon, are based on results from 15.4% of voting districts having been declared in the province. The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result.

The model projects that the Democratic Alliance (DA) will secure 8.5% of the provincial vote, followed by the South African Communist Party (SACP) on 3.1%. Other parties are collectively projected to secure 9.8%.

The chart below compares the modelled projections to the 2011, 2016, and 2021 results in the province.

The CSIR model also predicts voter turnout of 48.1% in Limpopo.

The CSIR cautions that its predictions are statistical estimates based on available data and underlying assumptions, rather than official election results. The final outcome could therefore differ from the projections.